I've uploaded everything an experienced or aspiring Ufologist would need to match lights to day/night composite shots and to calculate positions and line of sight in relationship to the meticulously detailed coordinates documented by Dr. Bruce Maccabee.
I've provided the video clips labeled with their times so screen captures can be done easily as well as the videos themselves which can also be found on Youtube by searching sbjazzman.
Please provide any comments or feedback concerning the findings or report your own. This UFO investigation is meant to be interactive and open-source.
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This a response I made to an online forum moderated by a proponent of the Flare Theory. This is my answer to why I question "the preponderance of evidence" that supports that theory.
"Hi Frank, thanks for your response. First, I don't recall a conversation with you regarding this topic but maybe I responded to a post at one time. Second, I hope I have not inferred that Bruce has changed his conclusions concerning the MK/CR sighting as being flares. What I've said and he's said is that he's changed his positioning of their intersection some 30 miles south of where he had them. Where he had them is close to where mine would have intersected had they been the same objects in play. I'm saying that they were not the same objects we video taped for the following reasons:
1. Why do we see only a portion of the 9 lights if they were the same lights? If the answer is they were obstructed behind the ridgeline, how do you account for that when our ridgeline is 2,000 ft. below MK's ridgeline? MK would not have even been able to see my lights since they were low enough in our horizon that the filmographer had to stand on the ledge of the balcony to film them just above the houses. We were only 42 ft. above the desert floor.
2. There is a lower orb in front of a house across the street (see the photo/composites in the pdf file I attached to the page I linked to). Why does MK not see a lower orb (don't confuse with the left orb known as Light 1)? If you say I've placed the orbs too low then it brings up the question as to why I don't see the other orbs MK see's since according to the times, MK has his Light 6 pop on (our second light) 7 seconds after ours.
Both MK and our group saw an initial Light 0 which prompted us to get cameras). Everyone of us saw the lights over different points of the mountain range which if they were in one place, could be explained, however there can be no argument that my left light is 28 miles north of where Dr. Maccabee now places MK/CR's left light (my light that can be seen furthest on the right is 40 miles north of Dr. Maccabee's revised MK/CR intersection point). If anything I've erred on the side of a conservative placement. My right orb should be placed even more north (est. 226 azimuth) than where it is and puts it just north of Interstate 8 and north of Military Airspace. If LK's sighting is extended to intersect with MK's, it would be 43 miles north of where the current intersection between MK and CR is (and also north of Military Airspace). Actually Dr. Maccabee's placement further south could account for why I don't see the full array.
3. See the comparison's of all 4 video perspectives in the PDF. You'll see the left orb at all kinds of variances. My home was in CR's path. While he seems to have begun shooting his video 3 minutes after ours began, there is no way to account for the small distance between the left orb and right side of his array since there was supposed drift to the left. Our orbs showed a slight drift to the right (left orb went left which would have created an even bigger distance between the left orb and the right array as the moments ticked by).
4. The orbs remain stationary for at least 1:45 based on matching their positions to ground lights and an entry light across the street. These show up in full frames of video that can be analyzed by anyone who wants to take the time to actually review the film, the photoshop file, etc.
I am clearly stumped by your question concerning moving on from the "flare" video to the true unknowns. Why have you framed this as an either or conclusion? My goal has been to include the abundance of evidence I and others have accumulated to let the evidence speak for itself. If you look at the photoshop file you'll see that I actually captured a three orb Vee around 8:30 that evening in the same location with a helicopter hovering over it. It's at 9:50 in this video
While my meticulous focus on the data may seem like an obsession to others, it is purely so I can feel closure and a satisfaction that the evidence we've collected has been given a proper review. From Richard Motzer's original drawing on a napkin which put CR's position totally out of whack with mine (he show's Rairden's line of sight north of mine while Dr. Maccabee shows it south),
to Dr. Maccabee's analysis showing only the other 3 positions, I've been left to reconstruct the case (with other investigators' assistance) to assure that ALL evidence has been considered before reaching any conclusions that would dismiss what in my case, was four nights of consecutive sightings of the same amber orbs.
Note that in Dr. Maccabee's addendum published in 1998
He made this note on the Light 0 which was a light in a frame he received that was actually left of the array's left light that appeared about 5 minutes later.
"H & K Hamilton and King [who were at my home] claimed that their sighting direction was toward Montezuma's Peak at about 235 degrees azimuth. However, any lights that were in that direction and also in an area that could appear in Krzyston's video would be on the north side of the Estrellas and at an azimuth of around 265 degrees, not 235 degrees, from the location of H & K. But of more importance is the fact, mentioned above, that the daytime comparison photos show they were looking toward Montezuma's Head, a nearly flat topped portion of the Estrella range at an azimuth of about 221-223 degrees. Projection of a line along the 221 degree azimuth starting at the location of H&K passes through the location of the arc of lights as determined by the K, L and R videos (see Figure 18 of RPLA). Hence it would appear that, because they were looking in the direction of Montezuma's Head, they were also looking in the direction of the arc array. "
This is referring to what he thought was the left of the array. In the correct frame of film showing that left light and matching it to the furthest set of ground lights, I calculated an angle of 216 Azimuth - which is 5 degrees further south then what Dr. Maccabee estimated at the time. Granted he might have used my house as the center point which skewed his findings north while I used the actual filming location on the balcony, this is a significantly more conservative line of site measurement unless Dr. Maccabee was referring to lights on the right side of the array (I calculated the furthest orb on the right to be 219 azimuth which is still south of his position). I have to point out again that a major reason why I reconstructed the Triangulation was to get to the detail on my sighting position within the total report that was produced. My sighting information was minimal and sketchy at best.
Dr. Maccabee's reanalysis of the Mike Krzston/Chuck Rairden arc of Lights (KRA) as he refers to them in the paper recently published, is based on factoring out Dr. Lynne Kitei's March 13, 1997 lights from the sighting which he had relied on to find Chuck Rairden's March 13th angles that he published in 1998.
Dr. Maccabee also assumed that Dr. Kitei's January 14, 1998 line of sight (another major Phoenix sighting) was exactly the same as the March 13, 1997 sighting line which Dr. Kitei has not agreed with. Both the March 13, 1997 and the January 14, 1998 triangulations were published at the same time in 1998.
"Accurate triangulation requires a large baseline and accurate viewing angles (sighting directions) as measured relative to the baseline. In the 1998 analysis the baseline of the triangle, that is, the distance from CR to MK, was found to be 32 miles, so it was expected that the CR-MK triangulation would be quite accurate. However, the analysis of the CR video with the video equipment then available did not produce sufficiently accurate sighting angles from the CR location (there was low confidence in the values of the angles). Therefore the CR sighting directions were based on a triangulation that used the reasonably accurately determined (angles to within a degree and a 7.5 mile baseline) LK and MK sighting lines. The CR sighting directions, obtained in this way, combined with the MK directions, yielded triangulated locations that, unsurprisingly, agreed with the LK-MK locations (as shown in the “Report on Phoenix Lights Arrays,” Sept. 1998).
Now it is assumed that the LK lights play no role in the MK-CR triangulation so another way must be used to determine the sighting lines from the CR location. An analysis of the “raw data,” that is, the CR video and a comparison/reference video was undertaken using modern equipment. This analysis resulted in the determination, with reasonable confidence, of the sighting line directions from the CR location and for a new triangulation of the light array. The results of the new analysis are described below."
Please read the entire CR reanalysis report for the detail which gets Dr. Maccabee to the following conclusion
"In the previous analysis the intersection of the MK and LK sighting lines was used to “calibrate” the sighting directions from CR’s location. This was because, as described above, the ground reference images that were obvious in the daytime reference video were very indistinct in the CR video and so this author did not feel confident in using the indistinct images, such as that of the house roof, to establish sighting directions. However, there is now a new consideration, namely, that it is possible that the LK video does not show lights in the MK-CR array. In that case the intersection of LK and MK sighting lines is irrelevant and cannot be used to calibrate the CR sighting directions. Instead, the MK-CR triangulation must then be based on sighting line directions determined from the CR and reference videos alone. Fortunately better equipment now available has made this possible, as demonstrated above.
Even though the new analysis shows that the sighting directions in the old analysis were wrong by about 5-6 degrees (e.g., sighting line 1 was 226 degrees in the previous analysis, 220 degrees in the new analysis), it is important to realize that the general conclusion of the first analysis is supported and even strengthened by the new results. The general conclusion is that the “Krzysten-Rairdon Arc” was far southwest of Phoenix rather then over or close to Phoenix. As pointed out in the previous analysis, this places the lights in the vicinity of the Goldwater Training Range where, it is said, at about 10 PM, the Maryland Snowbirds Air National Guard unit finished a training exercise that used very bright LUU-2 flares and then ejected the remaining flares so they would not have to land with flares in the loading bay. According to the spokesman for the Air Guard these flares were dropped at high altitude and therefore could be seen by people, such as MK, who were at the higher altitudes in the Phoenix area. As has been pointed out in the previous analysis, the lights move slowly downward and to the left, as would parachute flares falling in an air mass that is moving eastward, which was the general wind direction at the time. Also, the durations of the lights are less than the maximum burn time of these flares (about 5 minutes). Therefore this investigator concludes that the lights were flares dropped by the Maryland National Guard.
END NOTE: The previous analysis also discussed the January 14, 1998 (J14) light arrays which were described by the witnesses as appearing just like the M13 lights discussed here. This new analysis would also impact the triangulations carried out for the J14 lights: it would move the lights 20 - 25 miles farther from the witnesses than calculated previously."
There is also confusion concerning the witness locations, the altitudes of desert floor, the altitude of their homes and the altitude of the Estrella Range at the point their line of site intersects. This numbers are easy to get in Google Earth by moving the cursor to these points on the may using the coordinates provided.
I myself was only 42 ft. above the altitude listed for Phoenix which is 1150ft. Montezuma's Head which is the line of sight for my Lights is 2,110 ft. CR's altitude was 1,218 ft and he had no mountain obstruction. MK was the highest at 1,641 ft but he was also looking over the highest peak (well just next to it) which is 4,107 Feet. My mountains blocking me were 2,000 feet below his. So much for his other lights being obscured by the range.